Increase the proportion of 4th-graders with math skills at or above the proficient level — AH‑06 Data Methodology and Measurement

About the National Data


Baseline: 40.2 percent of 4th grade students attending public and private schools had mathematics skills that were at or above the proficient achievement level for their grade in 2017

Target: 43.1 percent

Number of 4th grade students scoring at the proficiency level or higher for grade level in the mathematics skills test administered by the National Assessment of Educational Progress.
Number of 4th grade students attending public or private schools.
Target-setting method


Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using weighted least squares and a projection at the 33 percent prediction interval.
Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using weighted least squares, and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 33 percent prediction interval was selected because the Healthy People 2030 Workgroup Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) anticipated a positive trend for the 2030 decade. The SMEs took into account the availability of more promising and robust evidence-based interventions for improving youth math proficiency. Therefore, the SMEs selected an ambitious yet achievable target.


Methodology notes

The proficient achievement level is one of three National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) achievement levels: basic, proficient, and advanced. Minimum cut-off scores are established for each achievement level by a standard setting process. The proficient achievement level represents solid academic performance for the grade level assessed. The mathematics assessment was designed to measure students' knowledge of mathematics and their ability to apply that knowledge in problem-solving situations. The mathematics framework classifies assessment questions in two dimensions, content area and mathematical complexity, that are used to guide the assessment. Each question is designed to measure one of the following mathematics content areas: number properties and operations, measurement, geometry, data analysis, statistics, probability, and algebra.


Comparable HP2020 objective
Retained, which includes core objectives that are continuing from Healthy People 2020 with no change in measurement.

1. Because Healthy People 2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.