On this page: About the National Data | Methodology | History
About the National Data
Data
Data Source: National HIV Surveillance System (NHSS), CDC/NCHHSTP
Baseline: 37,000 persons aged 13 years and over were newly infected with HIV in 2017
Target: 3,000 persons
Methodology
Estimates were based on HIV surveillance data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia for persons aged 13 years and over. HIV incidence was determined based on the CD4-depletion model as described in the HIV Surveillance Supplemental Report: Estimated HIV Incidence and Prevalence in the United States 2015-2019. Additonal details are available on the HIV Surveillance Reports webpage. The CD4 depletion model uses first CD4 test results after HIV diagnosis data that is routinely collected as part of the National HIV Surveillance System (NHSS) by all jurisdictions. Assuming that no treatment has been received, the CD4 cell count can be used to estimate the time since infection at the date of CD4 test. The CD4 model is applied to NHSS data to estimate the distribution of delay from infection to diagnosis.
For additional information on methodology see:
Song R, Hall HI, Green TA, Szwarcwald CL, Pantazis N. Using CD4 data to estimate HIV incidence, prevalence, and percent of undiagnosed infections in the United States, J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2017;74(1):3–9. doi:10.1097/QAI.0000000000001151
