About the National Data

Data

Baseline: 9.4 asthma deaths per 1,000,000 population occurred in 2018

Target: 8.9 asthma deaths per 1,000,000 population

Numerator
Number of asthma deaths (ICD-10 codes: J45-J46).
Denominator
Number of persons.
Target-setting method

Projection

Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using weighted least squares and a projection at the 67 percent prediction interval.
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Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using weighted least squares, and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 67 percent prediction interval was selected because the trend information over the past several years for this objective indicated that asthma deaths had overall been stable. Therefore, the Healthy People 2030 Workgroup Subject Matter Experts selected a more conservative target.

History

Comparable HP2020 objective
Modified, which includes core objectives that are continuing from Healthy People 2020 but underwent a change in measurement.
Changes between HP2020 and HP2030
This objective differs from the related Healthy People 2020 objectives in that it is a composite of objectives RD-1.1, RD-1.2, and RD-1.3, which tracked asthma deaths among persons under age 35 years, aged 35 to 64 years, and aged 65 years and over, respectively. The Healthy People 2030 data are age adjusted.

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Because Healthy People 2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.