Reduce blood lead levels in children aged 1 to 5 years — EH‑04 Data Methodology and Measurement

About the National Data


Baseline: 3.31 micrograms per deciliter (µg/dL) was the concentration level of lead in blood samples at which 97.5 percent of the population aged 1 to 5 years was at or below in 2013-16

Target: 1.18 µg/dL

Concentration of blood lead among children aged 1 to 5 years in the 97.5 percentile.
Target-setting method


Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using weighted least squares and a projection at the 75 percent prediction interval.
Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using weighted least squares, and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 75 percent prediction interval was selected because the Healthy People 2030 Workgroup Subject Matter Experts viewed this as a challenging yet achievable target based on current trends.


Methodology notes

Blood lead measurement is the preferred method of evaluating lead exposure and its human health effects. Blood lead levels reflect both recent intake and equilibration with stored lead in other tissues, particularly in the skeleton. Urine levels may reflect recently absorbed lead, though there is greater individual variation in urine lead than in blood and greater potential for contamination.

Reference: CDC Biomonitoring Summary for Lead


Comparable HP2020 objective
Retained, which includes core objectives that are continuing from Healthy People 2020 with no change in measurement.

1. Because Healthy People 2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.