Reduce the death rate for people on dialysis — CKD‑10 Data Methodology and Measurement

About the National Data

Data

Baseline: 170.0 deaths per 1,000 patient years occurred among patients on dialysis in 2016

Target: 117.2 per 1,000

Numerator
Number of deaths among persons on dialysis.
Denominator
Period prevalent dialysis population.
Target-setting method

Projection

Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using weighted least squares and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval.
1
Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using weighted least squares and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval was selected because no additional information could be used to assess the trend line so the target was based on the projection (50 percent).

Methodology

Methodology notes

This measure is translated into patient years at risk (instead of a rate per population) to obtain a more uniform rate to track over time. Cohorts for these tables include period prevalent dialysis patients in each calendar year, 2020– 2028, whose first ESKD service date is at least 90 days prior to the beginning of the year (point prevalent patients on January 1).

Patients with unknown age, gender, or race, and those with an age calculated to be less than zero are excluded, as are patients who are not residents of the 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, or the Territories. Age is calculated on January 1. Race is obtained from the CMS Medical Evidence Form (CMS-2728).

For point prevalent dialysis patients, patients are followed from January 1 until death, transplant, or December 31 of the year. Rates are estimated as the number of patients who die from any cause in each year, per 1,000 patient years at risk.

History

Comparable HP2020 objective
Retained, which includes core objectives that are continuing from Healthy People 2020 with no change in measurement.
Revision History
Revised. 

In 2021, the original baseline was revised from 173.1 to 169.9 per 1,000 patient years due to USRDS rates re-estimation. There is some lag in reporting new cases of ESRD. Therefore, each year’s Annual Data Report includes re-estimates of earlier year rates. For more information see the USRDS Annual Data Reports. The target was adjusted from 120.6 to 117.2 to reflect the revised baseline using the original target-setting method.


1. Because Healthy People 2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.