Increase the proportion of people on Medicare with chronic kidney disease who get recommended tests — CKD‑04 Data Methodology and Measurement

About the National Data

Data

Baseline: 35.9 percent of Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years and over with chronic kidney disease received medical evaluation with serum creatinine, lipids, and urine albumin tests in 2016

Target: 48.8 percent

Numerator
Number of Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years and over with chronic kidney disease who receive medical evaluation with serum creatinine, lipids, and urine albumin tests.
Denominator
Number of Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years and over with chronic kidney disease.
Target-setting method

Projection

Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using weighted least squares and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval.
1
Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using weighted least squares and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval was selected because of current data trends and the gradual impact of current practice guidelines. The Healthy People 2030 Workgroup Subject Matter Experts viewed this as an ambitious yet achievable target.

Methodology

Methodology notes

The data to track this objective come from the USRDS 5% Medicare sample. The USRDS data, data collection procedures, calculation methods, and other technical information are included in the USRDS Annual Data Report.

History

Comparable HP2020 objective
Retained, which includes core objectives that are continuing from Healthy People 2020 with no change in measurement.
Revision History
Revised. 

In 2021, the original baseline was revised from 34.0 to 35.9 percent due to USRDS rates re-estimation. There is some lag in reporting new cases of ESRD. Therefore, each year’s Annual Data Report includes re-estimates of earlier year rates. For more information see the USRDS Annual Data Reports. The target was adjusted from 46.7 to 48.8 percent to reflect the revised baseline using the original target-setting method.


References

Additional resources about the objective

United States Renal Data System. 2018 USRDS annual data report: Epidemiology of kidney disease in the United States. National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, Bethesda, MD, 2018.

1. Because Healthy People 2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.