About the National Data

Data

Baseline: 5.9 homicides per 100,000 population occurred in 2018 (age adjusted to the year 2000 standard population)

Target: 5.5 homicides per 100,000 population

Numerator
Number of deaths due to homicide (ICD-10 codes: *U01–*U02, X85–Y09, Y87.1).
Denominator
Number of persons.
Target-setting method

Projection

Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using weighted least squares and a projection at the 25 percent prediction interval.
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Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using weighted least squares, and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 25 percent prediction interval was selected because historical rates have been low.

History

Comparable HP2020 objective
Retained, which includes core objectives that are continuing from HP2020 with no change in measurement.

Footnotes

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Because HP2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.