Reduce current cigarette smoking in adults — TU‑02 Data Methodology and Measurement

This objective is a Leading Health Indicator (LHI). Learn about LHIs.

About the National Data


Baseline: 14.2 percent of adults aged 18 years and over were current cigarette smokers in 2019

Target: 6.1 percent

Number of adults aged 18 years and over who have smoked at least 100 cigarettes in lifetime and who now report smoking cigarettes every day or some days.
Number of adults aged 18 years and over.
Target-setting method


Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using weighted least squares and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval.
Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using weighted least squares, and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval was selected because of new initiatives that will occur to prevent initiation of cigarettes and promote cessation of cigarettes.


Methodology notes

Persons are considered as using cigarettes if they report that they smoked at least 100 cigarettes in their lifetime and now report smoking cigarettes everyday or some days. This indicator uses age-adjustment groups: 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-64, 65+.


Comparable HP2020 objective
Retained, which includes core objectives that are continuing from Healthy People 2020 with no change in measurement.
Revision History

In 2021, due to the 2019 NHIS redesign, the baseline was revised from 13.9% in 2018 to 14.2% in 2019. The target was revised from 5.0% to 6.1% using the original target setting method.

1. Because Healthy People 2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.