About the National Data


Baseline: 13.9 percent of adults aged 18 years and over were current cigarette smokers in 2018 (age adjusted to the year 2000 standard population)

Target: 5.0 percent

Number of adults aged 18 years and over who have smoked at least 100 cigarettes in lifetime and who now report smoking cigarettes every day or some days.
Number of adults aged 18 years and over.
Target-setting method


Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using weighted least squares and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval.
Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using weighted least squares, and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval was selected because of new initiatives that will occur to prevent initiation of cigarettes and promote cessation of cigarettes.


Comparable HP2020 objective
Retained, which includes core objectives that are continuing from HP2020 with no change in measurement.



Because HP2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.