About the National Data

Data

Baseline: 8.3 percent of cigarette smokers aged 18 years and over successfully quit in 2018

Target: 10.2 percent

Numerator
Number of adults aged 18 years and over who ever smoked 100 cigarettes, who do not smoke now, and last smoked 6 months to 1 year ago.
Denominator
Number of adults aged 18 years and over who have ever smoked 100 cigarettes, who do not smoke now, and last smoked less than or equal to 1 year ago, AND current smokers who initiated smoking at least 2 years ago.
Target-setting method

Projection

Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using weighted least squares and a projection at the 25 percent prediction interval.
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Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using weighted least squares, and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 25 percent prediction interval was selected because data suggested that the prevalence of adult cigarette smokers' successful cessation is increasing at a steady pace.

Methodology

Methodology notes

This indicator measures the proportion of current adult smokers aged 18 years and over who are eligible to be a recent quitter who have had recent smoking cessation success. Persons who are eligible to quit smoking in the last year include persons who have ever smoked 100 cigarettes and who report that they stopped smoking within the past 1 year as well as current (everyday or someday) smokers who initiated smoking 2 or more years ago.

Time since initiation is determined by subtracting the age reported for when the respondent first started smoking regularly from the respondent's current age. If the difference is 2 years or greater these persons are considered to be eligible to be a recent quitter. Persons who responded that they were 85 years or older when they first started smoking regularly are counted as initiating at age 85.

Persons who reported that they stopped smoking in the past 1 year can report time since quitting in days, weeks, months, and years and are included in the denominator if they reported as follows: (1-94 days; 1-52 weeks; 1-12 months; 1 year). Recent success in smoking cessation included persons who reported that they stopped smoking 6 months to 1 year ago and are included in the numerator if they reported as follows: (26-52 weeks; 6-12 months; 1 year).

This indicator uses age-adjustment groups: 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-64, 65+.

History

Comparable HP2020 objective
Retained, which includes core objectives that are continuing from Healthy People 2020 with no change in measurement.

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Because Healthy People 2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.