Increase the number of states, territories, and DC that raise the minimum age for tobacco sales to 21 years — TU‑23 Data Methodology and Measurement

About the National Data


Baseline: 9 states (including DC and some territories) had laws that establish 21 years as the minimum age for purchasing tobacco products in 2018

Target: 30 States (including DC and Territories)

Number of states, the District of Columbia and territories that raise the age of sale of tobacco products to 21 years.
Target-setting method
Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using ordinary least squares and a projection at the 33 percent prediction interval.
Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using ordinary least squares, and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 33 percent prediction interval was selected because the Healthy People 2030 Workgroup Subject Matter Experts expected that adoption of Tobacco 21 laws will increase substantially.


Methodology notes

The minimum age of tobacco products refers to cigarette sales and e-cigarette sales in the STATE System and must be at least 21 years of age for both in order to meet the objective.

1. Because Healthy People 2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.