Increase the national average tax on cigarettes — TU‑21 Data Methodology and Measurement

About the National Data

Data

Baseline: 2.02 US Dollars was the national average tax on cigarettes in 2018

Target: 2.60 USD

Numerator
Sum of the tax on cigarettes for 50 states, DC and 7 U.S. territories.
Denominator
58 (50 states, DC and 7 U.S. territories).
Target-setting method

Projection

Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using ordinary least squares and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval.
1
Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using ordinary least squares, and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval was selected because this increase in the national average would result in substantial improvements in public health by reducing smoking and preventing youth initiation.

Methodology

Methodology notes

The average national tax on cigarettes is calculated as a mean of the excise tax on packs of cigarettes across all 50 states, D.C. and 7 U.S. territories (American Samoa, Guam, Marshall Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Palau, Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands).

History

Comparable HP2020 objective
Modified, which includes core objectives that are continuing from Healthy People 2020 but underwent a change in measurement.
Changes between HP2020 and HP2030
This objective differs from Healthy People 2020 objective TU-17.1 in that TU-17.1 tracked the number of states, the District of Columbia, and Federal government that increased the tax of cigarettes by $1.50 or more over the tracking period, while this objective tracks the national average tax on cigarettes across the 50 states, DC, and the U.S. territories.

1. Because Healthy People 2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.