Eliminate cigarette smoking initiation in adolescents and young adults — TU‑10 Data Methodology and Measurement

About the National Data

Data

Baseline: 4.0 percent of adolescents and young adults aged 12 to 25 years who had not previously smoked cigarettes in their lifetime first smoked cigarettes in the past 12 months in 2018

Target: 0.0 percent

Numerator
Number of adolescents and young adults aged 12 to 25 years who used cigarettes for the first time in the past 12 months.
Denominator
Number of adolescents and young adults aged 12 to 25 years who did not use cigarettes in their lifetime or who used cigarettes for the first time in the past 12 months.
Target-setting method

Projection

Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using weighted least squares and a projection at the 25 percent prediction interval.
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Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using weighted least squares, and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 25 percent prediction interval was selected because new initiatives are expected to influence the trend for this population.

Methodology

Methodology notes

The numerator was determined by comparing responses to "How old were you the first time you smoked part or all of a cigarette?" to the respondents' age. To further assess first use 12 months prior to the date of the interview, comparisons were made between the respondent's date of birth and interview date.

History

Comparable HP2020 objective
Modified, which includes core objectives that are continuing from Healthy People 2020 but underwent a change in measurement.
Changes between HP2020 and HP2030
This objective differs from the related Healthy People 2020 objectives in that it is a composite of objective TU-3.2 and TU-3.6, which tracked the initiation of cigarette use among persons aged 12 to 17 years, and 18 to 25 years, respectively.

1. Because Healthy People 2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.