About the National Data

Data

Baseline: 36.6 percent of 4th grade students attending public and private schools had reading skills at or above the proficient achievement level for their grade in 2017

Target: 41.5 percent

Numerator
Number of 4th grade students scoring at the proficiency level or higher for grade level in the reading skills test administered by the National Assessment of Educational Progress.
Denominator
Number of 4th grade students attending public or private schools.
Target-setting method

Projection

Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using weighted least squares and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval.
1
Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using weighted least squares, and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval was selected because the Healthy People 2030 Workgroup Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) anticipated a positive trend will continue as seen in the previous decade. The SMEs took into account promising and robust evidence-based interventions available for improving youth reading proficiency when selecting the target.

History

Comparable HP2020 objective
Retained, which includes core objectives that are continuing from HP2020 with no change in measurement.

Footnotes

1

Because HP2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.