About the National Data

Data

Baseline: 45.2 percent of persons with current asthma had an asthma attack in 2017 (age adjusted to the year 2000 standard population)

Target: 38.1 percent

Numerator
Number of people with current asthma who report having an asthma attack in the past 12 months.
Denominator
Number of people who report having current asthma.
Target-setting method

Projection

Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using weighted least squares and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval.
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Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using weighted least squares, and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval was selected because it was a statistically significant improvement from the baseline. Meeting this target may result in a higher but achievable decline in asthma attacks that may help meet the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) aspirational goal of reducing asthma-related emergency department visits in children.

Footnotes

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Because HP2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.