About the National Data

Data

Baseline: 5.7 hospitalizations for hip fractures per 1,000 adults aged 65 years and over occurred in 2015

Target: 4.6 per 1,000

Numerator
Number of discharges with ICD-9-CM primary diagnosis codes 820-820.99.
Denominator
100% of Medicare enrollees aged 65-99 years with full Part A entitlement and no HMO enrollment during the measurement period.
Target-setting method

Projection

Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using ordinary least squares and a projection at the 67 percent prediction interval.
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Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using ordinary least squares, and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 67 percent prediction interval was selected because the trend is likely to be impeded by external factors; therefore, a conservative value was selected.

History

Comparable HP2020 objective
Modified, which includes core objectives that are continuing from Healthy People 2020 but underwent a change in measurement.
Changes between HP2020 and HP2030
This objective differs from the related Healthy People 2020 objectives in that it is a composite of objective AOCBC-11.1, which tracked hip fractures among females, and objective AOCBC-11.2, which tracked hip fractures among males. In addition, the data source was changed from the National Hospital Discharge Survey (which is no longer conducted) to the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) linked to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) Medicare data.

1. Because Healthy People 2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.