Reduce coronary heart disease deaths — HDS‑02 Data Methodology and Measurement

About the National Data

Data

Baseline: 90.9 coronary heart disease deaths per 100,000 population occurred in 2018

Target: 71.1 per 100,000

Numerator
Number of deaths with coronary heart disease as the underlying cause (ICD-10 codes: I20-I25).
Denominator
Number of persons.
Target-setting method
Projection
Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using weighted least squares and a projection at the 75 percent prediction interval.
1
Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using weighted least squares, and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 75 percent prediction interval was selected because the declining trend of coronary heart disease mortality has gradually slowed the past two decades.

Methodology

Methodology notes

Death due to ischemic heart diseases (acute myocardial infarction, other acute ischemic heart diseases, and other forms of chronic ischemic heart disease), ICD-10 codes: I20-I25.

FOR SINGLE DATA YEARS: Death rates are calculated based on the resident population of the United States for the data year involved. For census years (e.g. 2010), population counts enumerated as of April 1 are used. For all other years, population estimates as of July 1 are used. Postcensal population estimates are used in rate calculations for years after a census year and match the data year vintage (e.g. July 1, 2011 resident population estimates from Vintage 2011 are used as the denominator for 2011 rates). Intercensal population estimates are used in rate calculations for the years between censuses (e.g. 1991-1999, 2001-2009). Race-specific population estimates for 1991 and later use bridged-race categories.

FOR MULTIPLE DATA YEARS: Death rates are calculated based on the sum of the resident populations for each of the data years involved (e.g. the denominator of a rate for 2008-2010 combined is the sum of the population estimates for 2008, 2009, and 2010). For census years (e.g. 2010), population counts enumerated as of April 1 are used. For all other years, population estimates as of July 1 are used. Postcensal population estimates are used in rate calculations for years after a census year and match the data year vintage (e.g. July 1, 2011 resident population estimates from Vintage 2011 are used as the denominator for 2011 rates). Intercensal population estimates are used in rate calculations for the years between censuses (e.g. 1991-1999, 2001-2009). Race-specific population estimates for 1991 and later use bridged-race categories.

History

Comparable HP2020 objective
Retained, which includes core objectives that are continuing from Healthy People 2020 with no change in measurement.

1. Because Healthy People 2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.