U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Office of Disease Prevention and Health Promotion

Reduce the proportion of unintended pregnancies — FP‑01 Data Methodology and Measurement

On this page:  About the National Data  |  History

About the National Data

Data

Data Sources:  National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), CDC/NCHS; National Vital Statistics System - Natality (NVSS-N), CDC/NCHS; Surveillance Data for Abortion, CDC/NCCDPHP; Guttmacher Institute Abortion Provider Census (APC), Guttmacher Institute; Guttmacher Institute Abortion Patient Survey (APS), Guttmacher Institute

Baseline: 43.0 percent of pregnancies among women aged 15 to 44 years were unintended in 2013

Target: 36.5 percent

Numerator
Number of unintended pregnancies among women aged 15 to 44 years.
Denominator
Number of pregnancies (live births plus abortions and fetal losses) among women aged 15 to 44 years.
Target-setting method

Projection

Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using ordinary least squares and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval.
1
Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using ordinary least squares and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval was selected because no additional information could be used to assess the trend link so the target was based on the projection.

History

Comparable HP2020 objective
Modified, which includes core objectives that are continuing from Healthy People 2020 but underwent a change in measurement.
Changes between HP2020 and HP2030
This objective differs from Healthy People 2020 objective FP-1 in that objective FP-1 tracked the proportion of pregnancies that are intended while this objective tracks the proportion of pregnancies that are unintended.

1. Because Healthy People 2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.

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