About the National Data

Data

Baseline: 43.4 pregnancies per 1,000 females aged 15 to 19 years occurred in 2013

Target: 31.4 per 1,000

Numerator
Number of pregnancies among females aged 15 to 19 years.
Denominator
Number of females aged 15 to 19 years.
Target-setting method

Projection

Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using ordinary least squares and a projection at the 75 percent prediction interval.
1
Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using ordinary least squares and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 75 percent prediction interval was selected because the Healthy People 2030 Workgroup Subject Matter Experts viewed this as an ambitious yet achievable target.

Methodology

Methodology notes

Adolescent pregnancies are the sum of all U.S. resident live births, induced abortions, and fetal losses to females aged 15 to 19 years. Data on live births are counts of all births to U.S. residents occurring in the United States, as reported to the National Vital Statistics System. Estimates of induced abortion are based on reports by CDC and The Guttmacher Institute's national estimates of abortions, based on survey responses in a census of all known abortion providers, are disaggregated by age, race, and geography according to proportions estimated by CDC's National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion (NCCDPHP), based on induced abortion data reported to the CDC by selected state health departments. Fetal losses refer to pregnancies that end in miscarriage, stillbirth, or ectopic pregnancy and are estimated as a proportion of births and of abortions. The total population of females aged 15-19 is obtained from U.S. Census data.

History

Comparable HP2020 objective
Modified, which includes core objectives that are continuing from Healthy People 2020 but underwent a change in measurement.
Changes between HP2020 and HP2030
This objective differs from the related Healthy People 2020 objectives in that it is a composite of objectives FP-8.1 and FP-8.2, which tracked pregnancies among females aged 15 to 17 years, and 18 to 19 years, respectively.

1. Because Healthy People 2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.