U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Office of Disease Prevention and Health Promotion

Increase the proportion of high school graduates in college the October after graduating — SDOH‑06 Data Methodology and Measurement

On this page:  About the National Data  |  Methodology  |  History

About the National Data

Data

Data Source:  Current Population Survey (CPS), Census and DOL/BLS

Baseline: 69.1 percent of high school completers were enrolled in college the October immediately after completing high school in 2018

Target: 73.7 percent

Numerator
Number of persons aged 16 to 24 years who were enrolled in a 2-year or 4-year college the October immediately after graduating from high school or obtaining a General Educational Development (GED) certificate.
Denominator
Number of persons aged 16 to 24 years the October immediately after graduating from high school or obtaining a GED certificate.
Target-setting method

Projection

Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using weighted least squares and a projection at the 25 percent prediction interval.
1
Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using weighted least squares and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 25 percent prediction interval was selected because it was a statistically significant change from the baseline. Improved education correlates with improved health.

Methodology

Methodology notes

Enrollment in college as of October of each year for individuals aged 16–24 who completed high school during the preceding 12 months. High school completion includes General Educational Development (GED) certificate recipients.

History

Comparable HP2020 objective
Retained, which includes core objectives that are continuing from Healthy People 2020 with no change in measurement.

1. Because Healthy People 2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.

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