U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Office of Disease Prevention and Health Promotion

Reduce the proportion of people who had alcohol use disorder in the past year — SU‑13 Data Methodology and Measurement

On this page:  About the National Data  |  Methodology

About the National Data

Data

Data Source:  National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), SAMHSA

Baseline: 5.4 percent of persons aged 12 years and over had an alcohol use disorder (defined as meeting DSM-IV criteria) in the past 12 months in 2018

Target: 3.9 percent

Numerator
Number of persons aged 12 years and over with alcohol use disorder (defined as meeting DSM-IV criteria) in the past 12 months.
Denominator
Number of persons aged 12 years and over.
Target-setting method

Projection

Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using weighted least squares and a projection at the 67 percent prediction interval.
1
Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using weighted least squares, and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 67 percent prediction interval was selected because no additional information could be used to assess the trend line, so the target was based on the projection.

Methodology

Methodology notes

The fourth edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM-IV) described two distinct disorders—alcohol abuse and alcohol dependence—with specific criteria for each. The fifth edition, DSM-5, integrates the two DSM-IV disorders, alcohol abuse and alcohol dependence, into a single disorder called alcohol use disorder, or AUD, with mild, moderate, and severe sub-classifications.

1. Because Healthy People 2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.

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