About the National Data

Data

Data source:  National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), SAMHSA

Baseline: 11.1 percent of persons aged 12 years and over who needed substance use treatment received treatment at a specialty facility in the past 12 months in 2018

Target: 14.0 percent

Numerator
Number of persons aged 12 years and over who needed and received illicit drug and/or alcohol treatment at a specialty facility in the past 12 months.
Denominator
Number of persons aged 12 years and over who needed illicit drug and /or alcohol treatment in the past 12 months.
Target-setting method

Projection

Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using weighted least squares and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval.
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Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using weighted least squares, and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval was selected because the trend was moving in the desired direction and the Healthy People 2030 Workgroup Subject Matter Experts viewed this as an ambitious yet achievable target.

History

Comparable HP2020 objective
Retained, which includes core objectives that are continuing from HP2020 with no change in measurement.

Footnotes

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Because HP2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.