About the National Data

Data

Baseline: 19.7 breast cancer deaths per 100,000 females occurred in 2018 (age adjusted to the year 2000 standard population)

Target: 15.3 breast cancer deaths per 100,000 females

Numerator
Number of deaths due to female breast cancer (ICD-10 code: C50).
Denominator
Number of females.
Target-setting method

Projection

Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using weighted least squares and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval.
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Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using weighted least squares and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval was selected because the reduction in deaths due to breast cancer among women has been consistent over the past 10 years. More widespread implementation of breast cancer screening among women, in addition to reduction in obesity and other risk factors and advances in treatment, is likely to lead to continuation of this trend.

History

Comparable HP2020 objective
Retained, which includes core objectives that are continuing from HP2020 with no change in measurement.

Footnotes

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Because HP2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.