Reduce the colorectal cancer death rate ā€” C‑06 Data Methodology and Measurement

About the National Data

Data

Baseline: 13.4 colorectal cancer deaths per 100,000 population occurred in 2018

Target: 8.9 per 100,000

Numerator
Number of deaths due to colorectal cancer (ICD-10 codes: C18-C21 and C26.0).
Denominator
Number of persons.
Target-setting method

Projection

Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using weighted least squares and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval.
1
Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using weighted least squares and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval was selected because the reduction in deaths due to colorectal cancer has been consistent over the past 10 years. More widespread implementation of colorectal cancer screening with less invasive modalities and new technologies, testing for hereditary colorectal cancer, improved nutrition and physical activity lifestyle habits, and advances in treatment are likely to lead to continuation of this trend.

Methodology

Methodology notes

Death due to malignant neoplasm of the colon and rectum (ICD-10 codes C18-C21 and C26.0). FOR SINGLE DATA YEARS: Death rates are calculated based on the resident population of the United States for the data year involved. For census years (e.g. 2010), population counts enumerated as of April 1 are used. For all other years, populations estimates as of July 1 are used. Postcensal population estimates are used in rate calculations for years after a census year and match the data year vintage (e.g. July 1, 2011 resident population estimates from Vintage 2011 are used as the denominator for 2011 rates). Intercensal population estimates are used in rate calculations for the years between censuses (e.g. 1991-1999, 2001-2009). Race-specific population estimates for 1991 and later use bridged-race categories.

History

Comparable HP2020 objective
Retained, which includes core objectives that are continuing from Healthy People 2020 with no change in measurement.

1. Because Healthy People 2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.