About the National Data

Data

Baseline: 13.4 colorectal cancer deaths per 100,000 population occurred in 2018 (age adjusted to the year 2000 standard population)

Target: 8.9 colorectal cancer deaths per 100,000 population

Numerator
Number of deaths due to colorectal cancer (ICD-10 codes: C18-C21 and C26.0).
Denominator
Number of persons.
Target-setting method

Projection

Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using weighted least squares and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval.
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Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using weighted least squares and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval was selected because the reduction in deaths due to colorectal cancer has been consistent over the past 10 years. More widespread implementation of colorectal cancer screening with less invasive modalities and new technologies, testing for hereditary colorectal cancer, improved nutrition and physical activity lifestyle habits, and advances in treatment are likely to lead to continuation of this trend.

History

Comparable HP2020 objective
Retained, which includes core objectives that are continuing from HP2020 with no change in measurement.

Footnotes

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Because HP2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.